South Africa, From Stability to Expansion: Energy Reform Pays Off as Q2 GDP Dips 0.2%

Published: 2026.09.29

Johannesburg skyline with container terminal and transmission towers

South Africa is entering a new phase of its economic recovery. After years of battling structural constraints, the country is starting to see tangible results from reform: energy reliability is improving, logistics performance is recovering, infrastructure investment is moving from planning to construction, and business confidence is growing.

For much of the past decade, growth was constrained by persistent bottlenecks in energy, transport and infrastructure. These challenges raised the cost of doing business, weakened competitiveness and dented investor confidence. Government responded with a series of bold reforms targeting the root causes.

The clearest progress is in energy. Following President Cyril Ramaphosa’s five interventions announced in 2022, South Africa is now on the verge of nearly 500 consecutive days without load-shedding. Eskom’s energy availability factor has reached its highest level since 2020; over 6,100 MW has returned to service, unplanned outages have fallen sharply and diesel spending is down more than 80%. Reliable power gives businesses the certainty to invest, expand and create jobs.

Infrastructure is also accelerating. A portfolio of 263 projects worth nearly R2 trillion is at various stages of development, while 37 projects worth R69 billion were completed in the past 18 months. More importantly, South Africa is increasingly showing it can turn infrastructure plans into actual construction — strengthening connectivity, service delivery and economic activity.

The next stage is converting these structural gains into faster, more inclusive growth. That is the focus of Phase Three of the government-business partnership, launched last month against key achievements including South Africa’s exit from the FATF grey list and recent sovereign credit rating upgrades.

The partnership will move from stability to growth. Its goal is to unleash investment, accelerate economic activity and support the creation of more than one million jobs by 2030. Targeted interventions in energy, logistics, mining, tourism, agriculture and infrastructure will be complemented by measures against crime and corruption, for competitiveness, and to expand opportunities for young people.

Ambitious targets have been set. They include operationalizing the South African wholesale electricity market by early 2027, unlocking a 32 GW grid-connection pipeline, raising freight volumes to 180 million tonnes, mobilizing about R500 billion in transport and logistics investment, unlocking over R50 billion in mining capital expenditure, and growing international tourist arrivals to 3.8 million by the end of 2027.

The partnership embodies a simple, powerful principle: sustainable growth requires collaboration. Government creates an enabling environment through policy certainty, infrastructure and public services; business brings the capital, innovation and expertise needed to expand production. Together they can unlock the investment, industrial growth and jobs that drive long-term prosperity.

The latest data show the journey is not over. After six consecutive quarters of growth, the economy contracted 0.2% in the second quarter of 2026. Weakness in mining, manufacturing and trade, plus subdued investment and rising imports, continue to weigh on performance.

Such short-term volatility should not obscure the deeper structural progress underway. Reforms in energy, logistics and infrastructure are already addressing some of the biggest constraints on growth. The task now is to ensure these gains translate into higher investment, stronger productivity, more jobs and rising living standards.

South Africa has laid important foundations for a more competitive, resilient economy. The challenge ahead is not only to sustain reform but to convert it into momentum. With continued collaboration, accountability and execution, the country has a real opportunity to move from recovery to sustained, inclusive growth.

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